{
  "updated": "2026-06-26",
  "title": "Migration / Irregular Immigration Flow Panel",
  "summary": "Tracks migration, irregular or unauthorized border movement, and crime-data source splits without pretending every dataset measures the same thing.",
  "evidenceRule": "A border encounter, asylum application, removal, return, visa-overstay estimate, unauthorized-population estimate, and illegal-entry estimate are different categories. Encounters are not unique people. Nationality is not immigration status. Police suspects are not convictions. Total sexual-offence statistics exist in official national datasets, but the immigration-status split is usually separate, partial, or unavailable.",
  "flowPanels": [
    {"region":"United States","publicFigure":"FY2025 Southwest Border marker: about 237.5K apprehensions / encounters; 2023 unauthorized-population estimates range around 13.7M to 14.0M depending method.","categoryWarning":"Encounters are not people. Apprehensions, inadmissibles, removals, returns, asylum claims, visa overstays, and unauthorized-population estimates must be kept separate.","track":["CBP encounters","OFO inadmissibles","ICE removals","returns","asylum claims","visa overstay estimates","unauthorized population estimates"],"sourceLabel":"CBP / DHS / OHSS / Pew / MPI","sourceUrl":"https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats","checked":"2026-06-25","confidence":"Medium: current public-record lane, categories not directly comparable"},
    {"region":"European Union / UK","publicFigure":"EU external irregular-border detections: about 178K in 2025; UK small-boat arrivals: 41,472 in 2025; EU/UK asylum applications: about 770K in 2025 in public reporting.","categoryWarning":"Frontex detections are not unique people. Asylum applications, returns, removals, Channel crossings, overstays, and country-level flows are separate categories.","track":["Frontex irregular border detections","Eurostat asylum applications","national returns/removals","UK Channel crossings","visa overstay estimates","country-level flows"],"sourceLabel":"Frontex / Eurostat / Home Office / Reuters / Guardian","sourceUrl":"https://www.frontex.europa.eu/what-we-do/monitoring-and-risk-analysis/migratory-map/","checked":"2026-06-25","confidence":"Medium: official source lanes identified, latest figures need weekly refresh"},
    {"region":"Mediterranean / Africa","publicFigure":"Central Mediterranean dead/missing marker: 800+ reported dead or missing from January to mid-May 2026; more than 1,300 reported in 2025.","categoryWarning":"Deaths and missing persons are route-specific and undercounted. Desert routes and invisible shipwrecks are harder to verify.","track":["Central Mediterranean deaths/missing","North Africa departure routes","Sahara/desert route estimates","shipwreck reports","IOM Missing Migrants updates"],"sourceLabel":"IOM Missing Migrants / AP / humanitarian monitors","sourceUrl":"https://missingmigrants.iom.int/","checked":"2026-06-25","confidence":"Medium-low: official minimum counts; true toll likely higher"},
    {"region":"Global Movement","publicFigure":"Global displacement marker: roughly 117M to 123.2M depending date and category; latest public reporting cites 117M displaced by war/persecution at mid-2025 and 123.2M forcibly displaced at end-2024.","categoryWarning":"Refugees, asylum seekers, internally displaced people, stateless people, returnees, irregular migrants, and unauthorized residents are different categories.","track":["refugees","asylum seekers","internally displaced people","returns","departures","stateless persons","regional displacement flows"],"sourceLabel":"UNHCR / IOM / Reuters / official humanitarian datasets","sourceUrl":"https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends","checked":"2026-06-25","confidence":"Medium: headline total changes by definition and date"}
  ],
  "sexualAssaultCountryLane": {
    "title": "Sexual Offence Statistics / Migrant-Status Split By Country",
    "summary": "Every listed country has official sexual-offence or sexual-violence statistics. The missing piece is not the existence of sexual-assault figures; it is the clean split by immigration status, asylum status, irregular status, suspect stage, charge stage, and conviction stage.",
    "euHeadline": "Eurostat 2024 EU marker: 256,302 police-recorded sexual violence offences, including 98,190 rape offences. These are police-recorded offences, not immigration-status splits.",
    "evidenceRule": "Official sexual-offence totals exist. Do not infer immigration status from nationality. Do not treat police suspects as convictions. Do not turn individual cases into group guilt. Unknown-status cases remain unknown. Police-recorded offences, suspects, charges, prosecutions, convictions, prisoners, nationality, citizenship, foreign-born status, asylum status, and irregular status are different datasets.",
    "statusLegend": ["OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","NATIONALITY / CITIZENSHIP SPLIT AVAILABLE OR PARTIAL","SUSPECT DATA ONLY — NOT CONVICTION","CONVICTION SPLIT NEEDS SEPARATE COURT SOURCE","IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN","ASYLUM / IRREGULAR-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN"],
    "countries": [
      {"country":"United Kingdom","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"ONS / Home Office police recorded crime / MoJ courts","latestSourceStatus":"Official total sexual-offence and rape data available through national crime releases; migration-status split is not a single comparable official table.","sourceSplitStatus":"IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN","availableSplits":["offence totals","victim/survey lanes","police recorded crime","court/prosecution lanes"],"missingSplits":["irregular-status split","visa-overstay split","asylum-status split","clean suspect-to-conviction immigration-status bridge"],"sourceLabel":"ONS / Home Office / MoJ / police force data / courts","sourceUrl":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice","evidenceWarning":"Foreign national, foreign-born, suspect, charged, convicted, asylum seeker, and irregular migrant are separate categories."},
      {"country":"France","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"SSMSI / Ministry of Interior / Justice Ministry / courts","latestSourceStatus":"Official sexual-violence and crime datasets exist; comparable migrant-status split needs separate verification by source table.","sourceSplitStatus":"IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN","availableSplits":["police recorded sexual violence","justice/court lanes","victimization survey lanes"],"missingSplits":["irregular-status split","asylum-status split","conviction-by-immigration-status table"],"sourceLabel":"SSMSI / Interior Ministry / Justice Ministry / courts","sourceUrl":"https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Interstats","evidenceWarning":"Nationality or place of birth must not be presented as immigration status."},
      {"country":"Germany","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"BKA Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik / Federal Interior Ministry / courts","latestSourceStatus":"Official sexual-offence data and suspect-nationality lanes are stronger here, but suspect nationality is not conviction and not legal immigration status.","sourceSplitStatus":"NATIONALITY / CITIZENSHIP SPLIT AVAILABLE OR PARTIAL; SUSPECT DATA ONLY — NOT CONVICTION","availableSplits":["sexual offence totals","suspect data","German / non-German suspect categories","some immigration-context categories in official reporting"],"missingSplits":["clean conviction-by-irregular-status table","clean asylum-status-to-conviction bridge","charge-to-conviction bridge by legal status"],"sourceLabel":"BKA PKS / Federal Interior Ministry / courts","sourceUrl":"https://www.bka.de/DE/AktuelleInformationen/StatistikenLagebilder/PolizeilicheKriminalstatistik/pks_node.html","evidenceWarning":"Non-German suspect does not mean illegal migrant; suspect does not mean convicted."},
      {"country":"Sweden","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"Brå / police / courts / statistics office","latestSourceStatus":"Official sexual-offence statistics exist; migration-background studies and crime tables need careful separation from immigration status.","sourceSplitStatus":"IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN","availableSplits":["offence totals","reported crime","court/conviction lanes","selected background-study lanes"],"missingSplits":["irregular-status split","asylum-status split","visa-overstay split"],"sourceLabel":"Brå / police / courts / statistics office","sourceUrl":"https://bra.se/statistik/kriminalstatistik.html","evidenceWarning":"Foreign background, country of birth, citizenship, and legal immigration status are not interchangeable."},
      {"country":"Italy","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"ISTAT / Interior Ministry / Justice Ministry / courts","latestSourceStatus":"Official sexual-violence, police, and justice lanes exist; comparable migrant-status split needs exact source extraction.","sourceSplitStatus":"IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN","availableSplits":["offence totals","victimization/statistical lanes","police/justice lanes"],"missingSplits":["irregular-status split","asylum-status split","clean conviction status split"],"sourceLabel":"ISTAT / Interior Ministry / Justice Ministry / courts","sourceUrl":"https://www.istat.it/","evidenceWarning":"Non-citizen and unauthorized migrant are different categories."},
      {"country":"Spain","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"INE / Interior Ministry / judiciary / police datasets","latestSourceStatus":"Official sexual-liberty offence and judicial/police lanes exist; immigration-status split needs exact official extraction.","sourceSplitStatus":"IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN","availableSplits":["offence totals","judicial lanes","police lanes","national statistical source lanes"],"missingSplits":["irregular-status split","asylum-status split","suspect-to-conviction immigration-status bridge"],"sourceLabel":"INE / Interior Ministry / judiciary / police datasets","sourceUrl":"https://www.ine.es/","evidenceWarning":"Nationality and legal residence status cannot be merged without a source table."},
      {"country":"Netherlands","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"CBS / police / Justice Ministry / courts","latestSourceStatus":"Official crime and justice statistics exist; migrant-status split for sexual offences needs exact table-level verification.","sourceSplitStatus":"IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN","availableSplits":["offence totals","police/court statistics","CBS crime and justice lanes"],"missingSplits":["irregular-status split","asylum-status split","clean conviction-by-status table"],"sourceLabel":"CBS / police / Justice Ministry / courts","sourceUrl":"https://www.cbs.nl/","evidenceWarning":"Migration background, citizenship, and immigration status must remain separate."},
      {"country":"Belgium","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"Statbel / federal police / justice records","latestSourceStatus":"Official crime and justice lanes exist; migrant-status split needs exact source extraction and category labels.","sourceSplitStatus":"IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN","availableSplits":["offence totals","federal police lanes","justice/court lanes"],"missingSplits":["irregular-status split","asylum-status split","suspect-to-conviction status bridge"],"sourceLabel":"Statbel / federal police / justice records","sourceUrl":"https://statbel.fgov.be/","evidenceWarning":"A police category cannot be turned into a legal immigration-status category without a source table."},
      {"country":"Austria","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"BMI crime statistics / courts / statistics office","latestSourceStatus":"Official sexual-offence data and suspect-nationality lanes are stronger here, but suspect nationality is not conviction and not immigration status.","sourceSplitStatus":"NATIONALITY / CITIZENSHIP SPLIT AVAILABLE OR PARTIAL; SUSPECT DATA ONLY — NOT CONVICTION","availableSplits":["offence totals","suspect nationality/citizenship categories","police crime statistics"],"missingSplits":["clean conviction-by-irregular-status table","asylum-status conviction bridge","charge-to-conviction bridge by legal status"],"sourceLabel":"BMI crime statistics / courts / statistics office","sourceUrl":"https://www.bmi.gv.at/magazin/2026_05_06/01_kriminalstatistik_2025.html","evidenceWarning":"Foreign suspect categories must not be read as illegal-entry categories."},
      {"country":"United States","publicFigure":"OFFICIAL SEXUAL-OFFENCE STATS AVAILABLE","officialStatsLane":"FBI NIBRS / BJS / DHS / state courts","latestSourceStatus":"Official rape/sexual-assault data exists across FBI/BJS and state systems; no clean national immigration-status conviction table covers all jurisdictions.","sourceSplitStatus":"IMMIGRATION-STATUS SPLIT NOT CLEAN; FEDERAL/STATE DATA FRAGMENTED","availableSplits":["FBI offence lanes","BJS victimization/justice lanes","state court lanes","DHS immigration lanes"],"missingSplits":["single national immigration-status split","asylum-status split","visa-overstay split","state-to-federal conviction bridge"],"sourceLabel":"FBI NIBRS / BJS / DHS / state courts","sourceUrl":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/","evidenceWarning":"National crime data and immigration-status data sit in different systems; avoid merging them without a named official table."}
    ]
  }
}