{"updated":"2026-07-03","title":"Probability Lab Core","purpose":"Create a speculation and forecasting layer that turns tracker signals into scenario probabilities, confidence bands, trigger lists and update history.","boundary":"This is a probability system, not certainty. It records assumptions, evidence, confidence and triggers. Forecasts must change when source data changes.","principles":["Separate fact, inference and speculation.","Every forecast needs signals, weight, confidence and update triggers.","Predictions must be versioned so the site can show what changed and why.","A low-confidence forecast must be labelled low confidence.","No forecast becomes a claim of fact without verified records."],"engineStages":[{"stage":1,"name":"Signal intake","description":"Collect source routes, verified records, filing metadata, news items, public-contract routes, regulator routes and missing-record updates."},{"stage":2,"name":"Classification","description":"Classify each input by topic, source type, freshness, reliability, affected layer and direction of impact."},{"stage":3,"name":"Scenario modelling","description":"Create competing scenarios rather than one fixed prediction."},{"stage":4,"name":"Probability weighting","description":"Assign probability bands based on source strength, signal count, trend direction and counter-evidence."},{"stage":5,"name":"Trigger watch","description":"List the events or records that would raise, lower or invalidate a scenario."},{"stage":6,"name":"Update log","description":"Keep every probability change with timestamp and reason."}],"probabilityBands":[{"band":"0-20","label":"low probability","meaning":"Possible but weakly supported or contradicted by stronger signals."},{"band":"21-40","label":"emerging possibility","meaning":"Some supporting signals exist, but the scenario remains uncertain."},{"band":"41-60","label":"live contest","meaning":"Evidence is mixed or the outcome depends on near-term triggers."},{"band":"61-80","label":"probable direction","meaning":"The signal set supports the scenario, with important caveats."},{"band":"81-95","label":"strongly indicated","meaning":"Multiple strong signals align, but uncertainty remains."},{"band":"96-100","label":"near certain only after confirmation","meaning":"Reserve for outcomes already effectively confirmed by official records or direct observation."}],"scenarioTemplate":{"scenarioId":"SCN-000","title":"Scenario title","topic":"topic lane","timeHorizon":"30 days / 90 days / 1 year / 5 years","currentProbability":0,"confidence":"low / medium / high","status":"watching / rising / falling / confirmed / rejected","supportingSignals":[],"counterSignals":[],"triggerEvents":[],"recordsNeeded":[],"lastChanged":"YYYY-MM-DD","changeReason":"reason for update"},"initialScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-001","title":"AI infrastructure becomes the main power-competition layer","topic":"AI and compute","timeHorizon":"1-5 years","currentProbability":72,"confidence":"medium","status":"watching","supportingSignals":["AI compute demand","data-center buildout","cloud-AI partnerships","chip supply constraints"],"counterSignals":["regulatory limits","energy constraints","market correction","public backlash"],"triggerEvents":["major public-sector AI contract","new export restriction","large data-center financing announcement","major regulator action"],"recordsNeeded":["SEC filing sections","public contracts","regulator records","energy/data-center records"],"lastChanged":"2026-07-03","changeReason":"Seed scenario from current tracker layer model."},{"scenarioId":"SCN-002","title":"Public services become more dependent on private cloud and software platforms","topic":"public services software","timeHorizon":"1-5 years","currentProbability":68,"confidence":"medium","status":"watching","supportingSignals":["public-sector procurement routes","cloud adoption","agency software contracts","identity and workflow systems"],"counterSignals":["sovereign cloud moves","procurement restrictions","data-localization rules","public-sector open-source alternatives"],"triggerEvents":["new large public-cloud contract","privacy-impact assessment release","audit report","procurement challenge"],"recordsNeeded":["USAspending search results","privacy impact assessments","agency contracts","audit reports"],"lastChanged":"2026-07-03","changeReason":"Seed scenario from public infrastructure pattern map."},{"scenarioId":"SCN-003","title":"Information discovery shifts from search/social feeds toward AI answer systems","topic":"platforms","timeHorizon":"1-3 years","currentProbability":64,"confidence":"medium","status":"watching","supportingSignals":["AI answer engine adoption","search integration","platform AI assistants","publisher traffic pressure"],"counterSignals":["user trust issues","legal challenges","publisher licensing disputes","model quality failures"],"triggerEvents":["major search interface change","publisher lawsuit outcome","new AI browser or assistant adoption milestone","regulator inquiry"],"recordsNeeded":["platform policy pages","transparency reports","publisher agreements","regulator records"],"lastChanged":"2026-07-03","changeReason":"Seed scenario from information distribution layer."},{"scenarioId":"SCN-004","title":"Missing records become the main investigation map","topic":"evidence operations","timeHorizon":"90 days-1 year","currentProbability":78,"confidence":"medium","status":"watching","supportingSignals":["missing-files board","source route queue","preliminary VRC batch","record intake queue"],"counterSignals":["records become available quickly","source routes fail","manual review bottleneck"],"triggerEvents":["new disclosure release","FOIA response","court docket update","verified record card batch"],"recordsNeeded":["disclosure indexes","court records","FOIA routes","verified record cards"],"lastChanged":"2026-07-03","changeReason":"Seed scenario from current site workflow."}],"nextBuildSteps":["Create probability-lab.html page.","Add scenario cards and probability bands.","Add update log file for forecast changes.","Add signal scoring rules.","Connect future feeds to scenario probability updates."]}