{
  "updated": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
  "title": "Probability Snapshot",
  "purpose": "Computed scenario snapshot from multiple scenario feeds plus weighted signal feeds.",
  "boundary": "This snapshot is a forecast model, not a fact claim. Probabilities are provisional and must change when records or signals change.",
  "inputFiles": [
    "data/probability-lab-core.json",
    "data/probability-scenarios-batch-002.json",
    "data/probability-scenarios-batch-003.json",
    "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json",
    "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json",
    "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
  ],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-001",
      "title": "AI infrastructure becomes the main power-competition layer",
      "topic": "AI and compute",
      "timeHorizon": "1-5 years",
      "baseProbability": 72,
      "computedProbability": 79,
      "probabilityDelta": 7,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 5,
      "totalSignalWeight": 12,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-lab-core.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-001",
          "title": "SEC filing routes established for major technology and finance targets",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "public filings",
          "sourceStatus": "preliminary VRC",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-005",
          "title": "Power targets are grouped by infrastructure layer",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "systems map",
          "sourceStatus": "category map",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-006",
          "title": "OpenAI policy route exists but private deployment records remain missing",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "AI policy",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified / content pending",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-014",
          "title": "SEC filing feed automation added",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "automation",
          "sourceStatus": "build pipeline",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-016",
          "title": "Billionaire Watch core connects wealth sources to infrastructure layers",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "billionaire watch",
          "sourceStatus": "tracker live",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "AI compute demand",
        "data-center buildout",
        "cloud-AI partnerships",
        "chip supply constraints"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "regulatory limits",
        "energy constraints",
        "market correction",
        "public backlash"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "major public-sector AI contract",
        "new export restriction",
        "large data-center financing announcement",
        "major regulator action"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "SEC filing sections",
        "public contracts",
        "regulator records",
        "energy/data-center records"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-002",
      "title": "Public services become more dependent on private cloud and software platforms",
      "topic": "public services software",
      "timeHorizon": "1-5 years",
      "baseProbability": 68,
      "computedProbability": 77,
      "probabilityDelta": 9,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 4,
      "totalSignalWeight": 9,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-lab-core.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-001",
          "title": "SEC filing routes established for major technology and finance targets",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "public filings",
          "sourceStatus": "preliminary VRC",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-005",
          "title": "Power targets are grouped by infrastructure layer",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "systems map",
          "sourceStatus": "category map",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-007",
          "title": "USAspending route added for public contract searches",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "public contracts",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified / search pending",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-018",
          "title": "Public service systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "public service systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "public-sector procurement routes",
        "cloud adoption",
        "agency software contracts",
        "identity and workflow systems"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "sovereign cloud moves",
        "procurement restrictions",
        "data-localization rules",
        "public-sector open-source alternatives"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "new large public-cloud contract",
        "privacy-impact assessment release",
        "audit report",
        "procurement challenge"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "USAspending search results",
        "privacy impact assessments",
        "agency contracts",
        "audit reports"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-003",
      "title": "Information discovery shifts from search/social feeds toward AI answer systems",
      "topic": "platforms",
      "timeHorizon": "1-3 years",
      "baseProbability": 64,
      "computedProbability": 71,
      "probabilityDelta": 7,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 4,
      "totalSignalWeight": 8,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-lab-core.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-005",
          "title": "Power targets are grouped by infrastructure layer",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "systems map",
          "sourceStatus": "category map",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-006",
          "title": "OpenAI policy route exists but private deployment records remain missing",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "AI policy",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified / content pending",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-012",
          "title": "Platform and policy routes exist for information visibility checks",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "platforms",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-019",
          "title": "Media and values systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "media and values systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "AI answer engine adoption",
        "search integration",
        "platform AI assistants",
        "publisher traffic pressure"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "user trust issues",
        "legal challenges",
        "publisher licensing disputes",
        "model quality failures"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "major search interface change",
        "publisher lawsuit outcome",
        "new AI browser or assistant adoption milestone",
        "regulator inquiry"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "platform policy pages",
        "transparency reports",
        "publisher agreements",
        "regulator records"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-004",
      "title": "Missing records become the main investigation map",
      "topic": "evidence operations",
      "timeHorizon": "90 days-1 year",
      "baseProbability": 78,
      "computedProbability": 95,
      "probabilityDelta": 17,
      "band": "strongly indicated",
      "confidence": "high",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 8,
      "totalSignalWeight": 23,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-lab-core.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-001",
          "title": "SEC filing routes established for major technology and finance targets",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "public filings",
          "sourceStatus": "preliminary VRC",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-002",
          "title": "SEC filing metadata feed added to build process",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 4,
          "lane": "automation",
          "sourceStatus": "build pipeline",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-003",
          "title": "Record intake queue defines first 12 verification tasks",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 4,
          "lane": "evidence operations",
          "sourceStatus": "task queue",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-004",
          "title": "Source route cards define what records can and cannot prove",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "source discipline",
          "sourceStatus": "source route cards",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-007",
          "title": "USAspending route added for public contract searches",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "public contracts",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified / search pending",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-008",
          "title": "DOJ Epstein disclosure route added as critical file-level review task",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "official disclosures",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified / file review pending",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-013",
          "title": "Preliminary VRC batch separates support from limits",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "evidence discipline",
          "sourceStatus": "preliminary VRC",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-014",
          "title": "SEC filing feed automation added",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "automation",
          "sourceStatus": "build pipeline",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "missing-files board",
        "source route queue",
        "preliminary VRC batch",
        "record intake queue"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "records become available quickly",
        "source routes fail",
        "manual review bottleneck"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "new disclosure release",
        "FOIA response",
        "court docket update",
        "verified record card batch"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "disclosure indexes",
        "court records",
        "FOIA routes",
        "verified record cards"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-005",
      "title": "AI systems become normal in public-service workflows",
      "topic": "AI public services",
      "timeHorizon": "1-5 years",
      "baseProbability": 66,
      "computedProbability": 70,
      "probabilityDelta": 4,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low-medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 2,
      "totalSignalWeight": 4,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-002.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-009",
          "title": "Public-contract route exists for public-service technology checks",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "public procurement",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-018",
          "title": "Public service systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "public service systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "public-sector software adoption",
        "cloud procurement",
        "AI assistant integration",
        "budget pressure for automation"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "privacy challenges",
        "legal restrictions",
        "failed deployments",
        "public-sector resistance"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "large agency AI procurement",
        "privacy impact assessment mentioning AI workflow",
        "audit report on AI use",
        "regulator restriction"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "public contracts",
        "privacy impact assessments",
        "agency AI policy pages",
        "audit reports"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-006",
      "title": "Digital identity and payment rails become more linked to access control",
      "topic": "identity and payments",
      "timeHorizon": "1-5 years",
      "baseProbability": 58,
      "computedProbability": 62,
      "probabilityDelta": 4,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low-medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 2,
      "totalSignalWeight": 4,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-002.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-010",
          "title": "Systems category map includes cloud, identity, finance, platforms and public services software",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "systems map",
          "sourceStatus": "category map",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-017",
          "title": "Money systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "money systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "digital wallet adoption",
        "banking compliance pressure",
        "fraud-prevention systems",
        "public-service login systems"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "cash protection laws",
        "privacy-preserving identity standards",
        "public resistance",
        "fragmented jurisdictions"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "new digital identity mandate",
        "major payment access policy change",
        "public wallet rollout",
        "court challenge"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "policy documents",
        "banking rules",
        "payment-platform terms",
        "public-service identity records"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-007",
      "title": "Geopolitical stress increases demand for monitoring and resilience systems",
      "topic": "geopolitical risk",
      "timeHorizon": "30 days-3 years",
      "baseProbability": 61,
      "computedProbability": 63,
      "probabilityDelta": 2,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 1,
      "totalSignalWeight": 2,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-002.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-009",
          "title": "Public-contract route exists for public-service technology checks",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "public procurement",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "cybersecurity spending",
        "border/security technology",
        "supply-chain risk tools",
        "defence technology procurement"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "de-escalation agreements",
        "budget cuts",
        "public oversight pressure",
        "procurement pauses"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "major cyber incident",
        "new emergency procurement",
        "defence technology contract",
        "security legislation"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "public contracts",
        "government notices",
        "cybersecurity advisories",
        "budget documents"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-008",
      "title": "Financial stress accelerates risk scoring and compliance automation",
      "topic": "finance and risk",
      "timeHorizon": "90 days-3 years",
      "baseProbability": 57,
      "computedProbability": 61,
      "probabilityDelta": 4,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low-medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 3,
      "totalSignalWeight": 7,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-002.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-010",
          "title": "Systems category map includes cloud, identity, finance, platforms and public services software",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "systems map",
          "sourceStatus": "category map",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-014",
          "title": "SEC filing feed automation added",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "automation",
          "sourceStatus": "build pipeline",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-017",
          "title": "Money systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "money systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "fraud pressure",
        "AML/KYC expansion",
        "credit risk automation",
        "market volatility"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "regulatory rollback",
        "consumer protection actions",
        "competition from privacy-first tools",
        "stable market conditions"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "banking stress event",
        "new AML/KYC rule",
        "major payment-platform policy update",
        "regulator enforcement action"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "regulator records",
        "bank filings",
        "payment terms",
        "risk-platform disclosures"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-009",
      "title": "Major disclosure releases produce institution-level fallout before person-level clarity",
      "topic": "disclosure events",
      "timeHorizon": "30 days-2 years",
      "baseProbability": 62,
      "computedProbability": 66,
      "probabilityDelta": 4,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 1,
      "totalSignalWeight": 3,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-002.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-011",
          "title": "Record intake queue includes official disclosure and court/source route work",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 4,
          "lane": "disclosure operations",
          "sourceStatus": "task queue",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "official disclosure routes",
        "court records",
        "missing-file pressure board",
        "public response gaps"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "redactions",
        "sealed records",
        "low-quality viral claims",
        "slow manual review"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "new official release",
        "court docket update",
        "settlement disclosure",
        "public response by named institution"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "official disclosure files",
        "court orders",
        "public responses",
        "counter-sources"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-010",
      "title": "Platform visibility becomes a central political and commercial battleground",
      "topic": "platform visibility",
      "timeHorizon": "90 days-3 years",
      "baseProbability": 69,
      "computedProbability": 76,
      "probabilityDelta": 7,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low-medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 3,
      "totalSignalWeight": 6,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-002.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-010",
          "title": "Systems category map includes cloud, identity, finance, platforms and public services software",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "systems map",
          "sourceStatus": "category map",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-012",
          "title": "Platform and policy routes exist for information visibility checks",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "platforms",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-019",
          "title": "Media and values systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "media and values systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "AI answer adoption",
        "search ranking disputes",
        "social platform moderation disputes",
        "publisher traffic pressure"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "regulatory transparency rules",
        "open-web alternatives",
        "publisher licensing deals",
        "user migration"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "major platform policy change",
        "search/AI ranking lawsuit",
        "transparency report shift",
        "publisher coalition action"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "transparency reports",
        "policy pages",
        "court records",
        "publisher agreements"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-011",
      "title": "Institutional trust shock increases demand for independent verification systems",
      "topic": "trust and verification",
      "timeHorizon": "90 days-5 years",
      "baseProbability": 73,
      "computedProbability": 82,
      "probabilityDelta": 9,
      "band": "strongly indicated",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 4,
      "totalSignalWeight": 10,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-002.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-011",
          "title": "Record intake queue includes official disclosure and court/source route work",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "disclosure operations",
          "sourceStatus": "task queue",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-013",
          "title": "Preliminary VRC batch separates support from limits",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "evidence discipline",
          "sourceStatus": "preliminary VRC",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-015",
          "title": "Probability update log established",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "forecast governance",
          "sourceStatus": "update log",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-020",
          "title": "Billionaire watch links individual targets to prediction scenarios",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "forecast linkage",
          "sourceStatus": "tracker link",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "declining trust indicators",
        "record gaps",
        "AI misinformation pressure",
        "source-verification demand"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "institutional reforms",
        "transparent releases",
        "credible audits",
        "public confidence recovery"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "major correction scandal",
        "high-profile disclosure",
        "audit failure",
        "new transparency standard"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "audit reports",
        "transparency datasets",
        "correction logs",
        "public trust surveys"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-012",
      "title": "Payment systems become more interoperable and compliance-driven",
      "topic": "money systems",
      "timeHorizon": "1-5 years",
      "baseProbability": 59,
      "computedProbability": 62,
      "probabilityDelta": 3,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 1,
      "totalSignalWeight": 2,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-003.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-017",
          "title": "Money systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "money systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "wallet growth",
        "stablecoin policy work",
        "bank compliance automation",
        "digital identity links"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "cash protection rules",
        "privacy-preserving payment tools",
        "jurisdiction fragmentation",
        "consumer resistance"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "new payment rule",
        "major wallet rollout",
        "stablecoin legislation",
        "central bank pilot expansion"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "bank filings",
        "regulator rules",
        "payment platform terms",
        "central bank records"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-013",
      "title": "Public services rely more on shared private infrastructure",
      "topic": "public service systems",
      "timeHorizon": "1-5 years",
      "baseProbability": 67,
      "computedProbability": 73,
      "probabilityDelta": 6,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low-medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 3,
      "totalSignalWeight": 6,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-003.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-016",
          "title": "Billionaire Watch core connects wealth sources to infrastructure layers",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "billionaire watch",
          "sourceStatus": "tracker live",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-018",
          "title": "Public service systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "public service systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-020",
          "title": "Billionaire watch links individual targets to prediction scenarios",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "forecast linkage",
          "sourceStatus": "tracker link",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "public cloud contracts",
        "software procurement",
        "identity services",
        "AI workflow adoption"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "sovereign cloud alternatives",
        "procurement restrictions",
        "data localization",
        "public-sector open-source alternatives"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "large cloud contract",
        "identity service rollout",
        "AI procurement record",
        "privacy assessment release"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "public contracts",
        "privacy assessments",
        "agency policy records",
        "standards documents"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-014",
      "title": "Platform and institutional messaging becomes more aligned around trust and safety language",
      "topic": "media and values systems",
      "timeHorizon": "1-5 years",
      "baseProbability": 63,
      "computedProbability": 68,
      "probabilityDelta": 5,
      "band": "probable direction",
      "confidence": "low-medium",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 3,
      "totalSignalWeight": 6,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-scenarios-batch-003.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-016",
          "title": "Billionaire Watch core connects wealth sources to infrastructure layers",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "billionaire watch",
          "sourceStatus": "tracker live",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-019",
          "title": "Media and values systems review lane created",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "media and values systems",
          "sourceStatus": "review lane",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-020",
          "title": "Billionaire watch links individual targets to prediction scenarios",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 1,
          "lane": "forecast linkage",
          "sourceStatus": "tracker link",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-003.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "platform policy overlap",
        "AI answer policy growth",
        "foundation and NGO records",
        "education and media alignment signals"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "platform divergence",
        "open-source alternatives",
        "public backlash",
        "regulator pushback"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "major platform policy alignment",
        "foundation grant pattern appears",
        "AI answer policy update",
        "education or NGO framework rollout"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "platform reports",
        "AI policy pages",
        "grant filings",
        "education records",
        "public statements and counter-sources"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    }
  ],
  "summary": {
    "scenarioCount": 14,
    "signalCount": 20,
    "averageProbability": 72,
    "highestScenario": {
      "scenarioId": "SCN-004",
      "title": "Missing records become the main investigation map",
      "topic": "evidence operations",
      "timeHorizon": "90 days-1 year",
      "baseProbability": 78,
      "computedProbability": 95,
      "probabilityDelta": 17,
      "band": "strongly indicated",
      "confidence": "high",
      "status": "watching",
      "supportSignalCount": 8,
      "totalSignalWeight": 23,
      "scenarioSourceFile": "data/probability-lab-core.json",
      "signals": [
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-001",
          "title": "SEC filing routes established for major technology and finance targets",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "public filings",
          "sourceStatus": "preliminary VRC",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-002",
          "title": "SEC filing metadata feed added to build process",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 4,
          "lane": "automation",
          "sourceStatus": "build pipeline",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-003",
          "title": "Record intake queue defines first 12 verification tasks",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 4,
          "lane": "evidence operations",
          "sourceStatus": "task queue",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-004",
          "title": "Source route cards define what records can and cannot prove",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "source discipline",
          "sourceStatus": "source route cards",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-007",
          "title": "USAspending route added for public contract searches",
          "weight": 2,
          "impact": 2,
          "lane": "public contracts",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified / search pending",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-008",
          "title": "DOJ Epstein disclosure route added as critical file-level review task",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "official disclosures",
          "sourceStatus": "route verified / file review pending",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-001.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-013",
          "title": "Preliminary VRC batch separates support from limits",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "evidence discipline",
          "sourceStatus": "preliminary VRC",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        },
        {
          "signalId": "SIG-014",
          "title": "SEC filing feed automation added",
          "weight": 3,
          "impact": 3,
          "lane": "automation",
          "sourceStatus": "build pipeline",
          "sourceFile": "data/probability-signal-feed-002.json"
        }
      ],
      "supportingSignals": [
        "missing-files board",
        "source route queue",
        "preliminary VRC batch",
        "record intake queue"
      ],
      "counterSignals": [
        "records become available quickly",
        "source routes fail",
        "manual review bottleneck"
      ],
      "triggerEvents": [
        "new disclosure release",
        "FOIA response",
        "court docket update",
        "verified record card batch"
      ],
      "recordsNeeded": [
        "disclosure indexes",
        "court records",
        "FOIA routes",
        "verified record cards"
      ],
      "lastComputed": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z",
      "nextAction": "Review new signals, pull listed records, and update scenario probability when records change."
    },
    "updated": "2026-07-07T17:03:07.561Z"
  }
}