{"updated":"2026-07-03","batchId":"TRIGGER-WATCH-001","title":"Trigger Watchtower Batch 001","purpose":"Convert scenarios into watchable trigger events that can move probabilities when records confirm them.","boundary":"A trigger is not proof. It is a watch condition. Probability moves only after a record confirms the trigger.","statusModel":["watching","triggered-unverified","record-backed","probability-updated","rejected"],"triggers":[{"triggerId":"TRG-001","title":"Large public-sector AI procurement appears","watchLane":"public procurement","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-005","movement":"up","impact":4},{"scenarioId":"SCN-002","movement":"up","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["public contract award","agency procurement notice","privacy impact assessment","agency AI policy page"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","prediction-engine.html","record-intake-queue.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-002","title":"Privacy impact assessment references AI workflow or analytics platform","watchLane":"privacy and oversight","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-005","movement":"up","impact":3},{"scenarioId":"SCN-002","movement":"up","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["privacy impact assessment","system description","agency owner","vendor or system name","data categories"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","findings-dashboard.html","source-route-cards.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-003","title":"New official disclosure or court record release","watchLane":"official disclosures","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-009","movement":"up","impact":4},{"scenarioId":"SCN-004","movement":"up","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["official release page","court docket entry","file index","redaction note","safe file-level classification"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","black-files.html","missing-files.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-004","title":"Major platform transparency report change","watchLane":"platform visibility","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-010","movement":"up-or-down","impact":3},{"scenarioId":"SCN-003","movement":"up-or-down","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["transparency report","policy update","government request metrics","enforcement category changes"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","prediction-engine.html","source-route-cards.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-005","title":"Digital identity or wallet policy rollout","watchLane":"identity and payments","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-006","movement":"up","impact":4},{"scenarioId":"SCN-008","movement":"up","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["policy document","wallet rollout page","legal mandate or rule","payment-platform terms","public-service login records"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","prediction-engine.html","systems-category-map.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-006","title":"Major cyber incident or emergency procurement","watchLane":"geopolitical and resilience risk","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-007","movement":"up","impact":4},{"scenarioId":"SCN-005","movement":"up","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["official incident notice","emergency procurement record","security advisory","agency contract"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","prediction-engine.html","tracking-feed.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-007","title":"New financial compliance or risk-scoring rule","watchLane":"finance and risk","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-008","movement":"up","impact":4},{"scenarioId":"SCN-006","movement":"up","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["regulator rule","bank filing","payment policy update","risk-platform disclosure"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","prediction-engine.html","power-dossiers.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-008","title":"Credible audit, correction scandal or transparency failure","watchLane":"trust and verification","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-011","movement":"up","impact":4},{"scenarioId":"SCN-004","movement":"up","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["audit report","correction log","official inquiry","public dataset","institutional response"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","findings-dashboard.html","system-feed-index.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-009","title":"AI search or answer-system policy shift","watchLane":"information discovery","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-003","movement":"up","impact":3},{"scenarioId":"SCN-010","movement":"up","impact":3}],"recordsNeeded":["policy page","product announcement","publisher agreement","court or regulator record"],"pageUpdates":["probability-snapshot.html","probability-lab.html","prediction-engine.html"]},{"triggerId":"TRG-010","title":"Preliminary VRC becomes full content-classified VRC","watchLane":"evidence operations","status":"watching","affectedScenarios":[{"scenarioId":"SCN-004","movement":"up","impact":5},{"scenarioId":"SCN-011","movement":"up","impact":2}],"recordsNeeded":["opened record","date","summary","supports","does not support","evidence grade"],"pageUpdates":["verified-record-cards.html","findings-dashboard.html","probability-snapshot.html"]}],"nextAction":"Create trigger watchtower page and connect triggers to future signal feeds."}